Last week, we gathered with an engaged crowd of more than 130 of our friends and neighbors at the Yountville Community Center for Reading the Tea Leaves: Napa’s Economic Outlook.
First, we want to extend our heartfelt thanks to Dr. Robert Eyler, Professor of Economics at Sonoma State University for an engaging and insightful presentation. Dr. Eyler’s ability to unpack complex economic trends and translate them into local relevance—with humor and (relative!) simplicity—is a rare gift, and our audience was eager to hear his perspective on the challenges and opportunities facing Napa County.
We are also deeply grateful to Jeri Hansen and Napa Chamber of Commerce for partnering with us to co-present this important community conversation. Their leadership in advancing economic development strategies will help shape the future we discussed last week.
Key Takeaways from Dr. Eyler’s Presentation
Dr. Eyler walked us through the national, state, and local economic landscape, highlighting trends that will shape Napa’s future. Here’s a brief summary of what we learned:
- A resilient (but uncertain) U.S. economy: Despite global shocks, the U.S. labor market remains strong, with no recession currently forecasted for 2025 with certainty. However, inflation, interest rates, and tariffs continue to inject uncertainty into markets and have increased the probability of recession. Dr. Eyler reminded us that more uncertainty brings more cost—and advised planning accordingly.
- California’s evolving job landscape: While California’s overall employment has only just surpassed pre-pandemic levels, Napa has seen solid job growth—about 2,300 jobs since 2020—but much of that growth depends on inbound commuting, reflecting the county’s tight housing market and traffic patterns.
- Napa’s economic engines—and the need to diversify: The region remains heavily reliant on wine and hospitality. As Dr. Eyler put it, Napa has been “the star of the North Bay” in recovering from recent downturns—but the big question now is how dependent we want to remain on wine and tourism.
- The rise of healthcare: Healthcare is steadily becoming a larger part of Napa’s economy, with the number of healthcare employers growing dramatically in the past decade.
- Regional cooperation: Dr. Eyler suggested that “there needs to be more regional cooperation than competition. Up Valley and down Valley have to talk to each other more often, and think about a regional strategy. The Community Foundation, Visit Napa Valley, and the Napa Valley Vinters all do a really good job in selling the valley up and down. You’ve got to keep that going or risk big trouble—especially if the down Valley is looking to change its economic direction, while up Valley still looks similar to 25 years ago.”
- Challenges on the horizon: Tariffs, a shifting tourism market, and an aging population all pose short-term challenges. Dr. Eyler posed an important question: Can Napa attract new sectors without undermining what has worked so well?
Looking Ahead
The lively Q&A session underscored the community’s keen interest in issues like housing, workforce development, and economic diversification. As one attendee observed, American Canyon’s growing population will increasingly shape county-wide decisions—a reminder of why ongoing conversation and bridge-building are so important.
Thank you to everyone who attended, asked thoughtful questions, and helped make this event a success.
Missed the event?
You can watch the full livestream recording on our YouTube channel: youtube.com/@napavalleycf.
Dig Deeper into the Data:
Download a copy of Dr. Eyler’s presentation slides.
